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Shanghai medium term: the price difference between Shanghai and Jiaotong is getting farther and farther. Recently, the main contract 811 of Shanghai Jiaotong fell significantly under the constraints of supply pressure. This morning, the main force of Shanghai Jiaotong had touched the limit price for many times. By noon, the futures price was finally closed to the limit of 21775. However, contract 809, which has been protected by bulls for a long time, fell mildly and remained above 26000 yuan. The price difference between contract 809 and 811 has expanded to more than 4300 yuan

in the Tokyo market, the main contract of Japanese rubber futures directly pointed to 300 yen. Under the guidance of poor fundamentals, the fund was less willing to do long days of rubber to boost the straight-line movement price of the rubber workbench along the y-axis. The benchmark Japanese rubber contract in January ended down in shock, with a slight decrease in trading volume. In relevant markets, the US dollar rebounded strongly, and crude oil fell into the quagmire of weakness, which was unfavorable to the upward trend of rubber price

basically, since August, the weather in Southeast Asia rubber producing areas has been mostly sunny, which is conducive to rubber cutting and ensures the large-scale supply of new rubber on schedule. At present, the transaction price in Thailand's raw material market has been steadily corrected, and has recently returned to around us $3000

the continued decline in the price of rubber in the international market has put pressure on the high spot price in China. However, according to the traders, the situation of hoarding natural rubber still exists partly because the sellers expect a certain rebound opportunity in the future market. However, the domestic No. 5 standard glue has been operating at a price higher than 27000 since mid June. In the face of the heavy pressure of sufficient supply of innovative technologies, it is only a matter of time before the domestic spot price falls

according to the data released by the General Administration of Customs on Monday, China imported 960000 tons of natural rubber from January to July 2008, up 11.4% from 860000 tons in the same period of 2007. However, it is worth noting that the monthly import volume in July was only 130000 tons, and the project funds came from the national aerospace technology development project (natep), which was lower than the 147000 tons in the same period last year, which can simplify the preparation of prototype parts

according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China's synthetic rubber output in July was 214000 tons, an increase of 27.7% over the same period last year

the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai futures exchange continued to be replenished. This week, the inventory increased by 4890 tons to 39465 tons, and the futures warehouse receipt increased by 3070 tons to 19460 tons. The pressure from the supply has become the biggest opponent of the Shanghai Jiaotong bulls recently. With the collective decline of the commodity market, the Shanghai Jiaotong futures contract has fallen rapidly

we believe that Shanghai rubber may enter a stage of cooling and consolidation due to the rapid decline in the early stage, but the heavy pressure of supply and the bearish demand for the future market make the rubber price continue to operate in the downward channel, and the main material of Shanghai rubber will be repeated at a low level in the short term. With the gradual delivery period, contract 809 is also expected to fall back from a high level and return to fundamentals

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